Global economic growth has remained strong in the first half of 2024, with full-year growth expected to average around 2.7%.

The Global Composite PMI indicates favourable economic conditions, particularly in advanced economies. However, momentum in the Manufacturing PMI weakened in July, dipping below the neutral 50 mark due to a slowdown in U.S. manufacturing activity. Concerns about the U.S. economy are not expected to significantly derail growth with U.S. GDP projected to grow by 2.5% in 2024. Goods spending picked up in the second quarter, and retail sales continued to grow above trend, marking a 2.7% year-over-year increase in July. In Europe, the region is gradually emerging from a prolonged period of stagnation, with GDP growth forecasted to reach 0.8% in 2024. Retail sales increased by 0.7% in Q2, supported by wage growth and improving consumer confidence. In China, economic momentum has softened, but GDP growth is still expected to be around 4.8% for the year. While producer prices have fallen, increased investment in manufacturing may lead to overcapacity. Nevertheless, robust export activity remains a key driver of China’s economic growth.